American Chamber of Commerce’s Young Professionals, Loyens Loeff, Amsterdam

October 10, 2008

Good evening.  I’m sorry that Ambassador Culbertson could not be with you this evening due to another commitment in The Hague but I’m very pleased to be here in his absence.

Barack Obama announced his presidential candidacy on February 10, 2007 and John McCain declared his intentions on April 25, 2007.  In the intervening 20 months of this presidential campaign, people across the United States and around the world have followed this singular contest in a way that we have not seen before.

But I don’t need to tell you that there is unprecedented interest in the U.S. presidential campaign all over the world.  It’s one of the reasons we are here this evening.  But why?  It’s not only the historic nature of this campaign – although if you consider the prominence of women candidates for the highest offices in the land, the first African American presidential nominee of a major political party, the candidacy of a venerated war hero – these aspects alone tell a pretty compelling story.

It’s not only the twists and turns either, although this presidential election makes a terrific story:  the epic Obama/Clinton struggle, the surprise rebound of McCain in New Hampshire that catapulted him toward the Republican nomination, the conventions and debates that have drawn record audiences, the vice presidential choices on both sides and what they say about the presidential contenders.

There are serious challenges facing the United States:  ongoing conflicts in two countries, the financial crisis that is straining both Wall Street and Main Street, the environment, energy, health care, immigration.  The economic challenges are certainly not limited to the United States – if we need any proof of that we need only to look at the Nikkei stock average, or the FTSE 100 or the CAC-40 today.

People are seized with the impact that this year’s elections will have on both domestic and foreign policy.  It is rare for a presidential election to be decided on foreign policy grounds, but in this election there has been extraordinary focus on these issues.  In two presidential debates so far McCain has pounded Obama with his assertion of Obama’s willingness to meet with adversarial foreign leaders “without preconditions.”  Obama has tried to shackle McCain to the Bush Administration’s deeply unpopular prosecution of the war in Iraq.  Yet over the summer and especially since the end of September we’ve seen the focus of the campaigns shift toward economic issues, and focus especially on the middle class.
How people will vote, and where people vote, particularly if they are registered in battleground states, is a matter of exceptional scrutiny.

With 24 days left in the campaign, pollsters have Barack Obama leading John McCain by between 5 and 7 percentage points.  Those polls have remained pretty stable over the last two weeks.  If you include the 2-3% statistical margin for error, we still have a pretty close race.  In fact, most observers assert that if the national polls remain close, what really matters is what happens in states that are identified as barely leaning one way or the other or, outright tossups.  Which is why these last weeks will see both campaigns mobilizing their ground troops (McCain has two dozen offices in the Commonwealth of Virginia alone; Obama has 43) and bombarding voters with TV ads with an intensity never before seen in a presidential election.

We’ve also seen new tactics over the last weeks, tied not only to the polls but to emergent events, especially the financial crisis.   There has also been an increase in negative campaigning.  Some say that the election is won day by day.  Many criticize the 24 hour news cycle as driving the campaigns.  Nevertheless, today’s New York Times includes an article on Governor Palin’s involvement in the so-called “Troopergate” case in Alaska and a piece revealing that finance records for Obama’s campaign include 3,000 fictitious donors.  Are any of these developments “game-changers?”  What could happen in the next 24 days to significantly influence the way Americans will vote on November 4?

You have three eminently qualified guests to help explore these and other questions.  And because I never get tired of discussing politics, I wish I could join you for the discussion.  But I have brought with me two very talented “young professionals” – Andy Webster-Main and Leena Sundburg who will stay with you during the rest of the evening and I thank the American Chamber of Commerce and especially the Young Professionals for welcoming us this evening.

Before I run off, I’d also like to tell you that there are two events planned for election night in Amsterdam – on at the Hilton Hotel and one at the Melkweg.  We are also participating in a “Who’s the President” breakfast at the Kurhuis in The Hague.  I hope you consider attending one of them and that I see you in 24 days.